WEST NILE VIRUS 

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Working Group II Report

"Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm

----------------------------------------------------------

E P A

Throughout the world, the prevalence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend largely on local climate. Extreme temperatures can directly lead to loss of life, while climate-related disturbances in ecological systems, such as changes in the range of infective parasites, can indirectly impact the incidence of serious infectious diseases. In addition, warm temperatures can increase air and water pollution, which in turn harm human health.

please read full report

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/health.html

----------------------------

Climate Change: A Planet at Risk

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/1,2692,11798,00.html

---------------------------------

scarcely known outside scientific circles

the jagged upward slope

showing rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere

has become one of the most famous graphs in science

a potent symbol of our times

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7120770.stm

~~~

US States Sign Global Warming Pact

Washington is running out of excuses to act on climate change

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday

Nov. 17, 2007

U.N. issues landmark

report on global warming

Panel offers dire warnings

 establishes scientific baseline for political talks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/16/AR2007111602053.html?nav=rss_nation

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=2813490&page=1&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s1891947.htm

http://www.un.org/english/

IPCC

(intergovernmental panel on climate change)

IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm

~~~~~~~

http://www.ipcc.ch/

-----------------------------

New ad in the Market 

ready.gov

being prepared is being accountable for yourself

act or you may not have the choice


NOV  07
Notice of Availability of Draft Guidance on
Allocating and Targeting Pandemic Influenza Vaccine
  However, at the beginning of a pandemic,
 the limited supply of existing pandemic influenza vaccines
will require that their distribution and administration be prioritized.
 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Social Restrictions
Reduce Death Toll During Influenza Pandemics, Study Suggests

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070807165255.htm

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Global Migration and Quarantine

 

C D C 

During 2004-2007 the CDC increased

the U.S. Quarantine Stations from 8 to 20

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dq/resources/Quarantine_Stations_Fact_Sheet.pdf

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dq/quarantine_stations.htm

* * * * * * *

The Medical Research Council is to set up a new research centre to

monitor the emergence of infectious diseases across the world.

The director of the new centre will be Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London.

He is now one of world's most influential experts on infectious diseases including pandemic flu.

Until recently it was thought that nothing could be done to control the spread of virulent infectious diseases.

The policy of most governments still is essentially to lie back, take it and then mop up the damage.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/6413349.stm

 

* * * * *

Scientists Concerned About Effects Of Global Warming On Infectious Diseases

May 23, 2007

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/

Scientists_Concerned_About_

Effects_Of_Global_Warming_On_Infectious_Diseases_999.html

 


 

Disaster Response

http://r.smartbrief.com/resp/hNrAohzZBnzbdtCibGwkfVyd

 


National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan One Year Summary 

 

  It is everyone's responsibility to remain vigilant.

We cannot become complacent and must continue to take the threat

of a pandemic very seriously.

 

 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza-oneyear.html

 

 

In February 2007, the U.S. Government released groundbreaking Federal guidance for non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating the impact of a pandemic. This community mitigation strategy is important because the best protection against pandemic influenza, a matched pandemic vaccine, is not likely to be available at the outset of a pandemic.

Lessons from the 1918 Pandemic can Help Communities Today

Researchers studying the outcomes of the 1918 pandemic in dozens of U.S. cities have concluded that the speed of the public health response matters tremendously. Implementing multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions early in a local epidemic can save lives. As an example, the contrast of mortality outcomes in 1918 between Philadelphia and St. Louis is particularly striking. The first cases of disease among civilians in Philadelphia were reported on September 17, 1918, but authorities allowed large public gatherings, most notably a citywide parade on September 28, 1918, to continue. School closures, bans on public gatherings, and other social distancing interventions that reduce contacts between people were not implemented until October 3, when disease spread had already begun to overwhelm the city. In contrast, the first cases of disease among civilians in St. Louis were reported on October 5, and authorities introduced interventions essentially identical to those introduced in Philadelphia on October 7. The difference in response times between the two cities was approximately 14 days, when measured from the first reported cases. The costs of this delay were enormous. Philadelphia ultimately experienced a cumulative excess pneumonia and influenza death rate during the fall of 1918, more than twice that of St. Louis.

The impact of a poorly mitigated 1918-like pandemic today would be staggering. In the United States alone, we could face 90 million ill persons and nearly two million deaths. Recent scientific modeling and historical reviews of the 1918 pandemic suggest that non-pharmaceutical interventions could be very effective at slowing the spread of disease and mitigating the outbreak, but only if they are implemented early and maintained consistently across communities affected by a pandemic. We estimate that these interventions could dramatically reduce the number of people who become infected, potentially preventing illness and death in millions of Americans. Therefore, community mitigation measures will serve as a first line of defense to help delay or mitigate the spread of influenza.

These interventions include:

  • Staying home if one is ill;
  • Staying home if someone in one's household is ill;
  • Dismissing students from school, closing childcare facilities, and keeping children home; and
  • Reducing close contacts in the community and at work (i.e., social distancing).

These interventions are strengthened by the combining of these non-pharmaceutical interventions with antiviral medications and the layering of other infection control measures to reduce disease transmission, such as hand hygiene (frequent hand washing), respiratory etiquette (covering coughs and sneezes), and the use of facemasks.

The Community Mitigation Guidance also introduces a Pandemic Severity Index (PSI) for assessing the health threat posed by a pandemic virus. The index will allow us to tailor community mitigation interventions and balance the need to protect the public's health while minimizing societal and economic disruptions. The community mitigation strategy was designed with input from many Federal agencies, State and local public health officials, etc. etc.

 

please read the full report

http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza-oneyear.html


 

FROM THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION

 Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics

The increased accuracy of climate predictions, and improving understanding of interactions between weather and infectious disease, has motivated attempts to develop models to predict changes in the incidence of epidemic-prone infectious diseases. Such models are designed to provide early warning of impending epidemics which, if accurate, would be invaluable for epidemic preparedness and prevention.

 

http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/infectdiseases/en/index.html 

 geneva 2005

http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/infectdiseases.pdf )

 


 

** Climate Findings Update **

by ArchitectureWeek

http://www.archweek.com/2007/0926/news_1-1.html

 

Even if global greenhouse gas emissions were to stop increasing today, the climate would continue to warm.

That was the stark reality underlined in February 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).1

The world is changing today in a way that has never happened before in the history of architecture.

And while prevention of the continually-worsening scenarios that will accompany continuing increases in greenhouse gases remains supremely important — as witnessed by the attendance of 80 world leaders at a United Nations climate summit held September 24 in New York City — it is also becoming clear that architects and engineers can and should begin to design buildings for a changing climate.

 

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE 

http://www.ipcc.ch/


FROM THE WEATHER CHANNEL 

 

MOSQUITO ACTIVITY FORECAST 

 

http://www.weather.com/activities/homeandgarden/home/mosquito/?from=breadcrumbs

 


Mosquito-borne Diseases

Because mosquitoes tap into the blood of birds, animals and humans, they can be ghoulishly efficient at transmitting certain diseases. Fortunately, fewer than 100 of the world's 2,700 mosquito species carry disease, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. While some mosquito-borne diseases can be deadly to humans, many cause only minor, passing symptoms in most people.

Here are some of the best-known mosquito-transmitted diseases:

Arboviral Encephalitides

Arboviral encephalitides are mosquito-transmitted viral diseases capable of causing encephalitis (brain inflammation). Varieties found in the United States include eastern equine encephalitis, western equine encephalitis, St. Louis encephalitis and La Crosse (LAC) encephalitis, and West Nile Virus encephalitis. Encephalitis is a very serious disease that can lead to coma, brain damage and death. Eastern equine encephalitis is particularly deadly, with a 30-35% fatality rate, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, cases are rare -- an average of four a year in the U.S., according to the CDC.

Most viral encephalitis infections either don't produce any symptoms at all or only lead to general flu-like symptoms such as fever, headache, muscle ache and malaise. Symptoms of severe encephalitis include high fever, stiff neck or back, sensitivity to light, vomiting and confusion.

West Nile Virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is a potentially serious illness. Experts believe WNV is now established as a seasonal epidemic in North America that flares up in the summer and continues into the fall. The most serious manifestation of WNV infection is fatal encephalitis (inflammation of the brain).

According to the CDC, only about one in 150 people infected with WNV will develop severe illness. Most people infected with the virus will not develop any symptoms at all. The risk of severe illness and death is highest for people over 50 years old.

The first appearance of WNV in North America was in 1999, according to the CDC, with encephalitis reported in humans and horses. 

 

Malaria

Malaria is a major international public health problem, causing 300#--500 million infections worldwide and approximately one million deaths annually, according to the CDC. Confined primarily to large areas of Central and South America, Hispaniola, Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, and the South Pacific, malaria is a disease spread by the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito.

This disease is characterized by a broad range of symptoms, from fever and body ache to serious infection leading to seizures, coma, and death. Though contracting malaria can have serious consequences, illness and death are largely preventable. Vaccinations against malaria currently do not exist, but taking an appropriate drug regimen and protection against mosquito bites can help prevent malaria. Regardless of precautions, however, travelers are still at some risk of contracting the disease.

Dengue Fever

Dengue fever is primarily a disease of the tropics, and the viruses that cause it are maintained in a cycle that involves humans and Aedes aegypti, a domestic, day-biting mosquito that prefers to feed on humans. Infection with dengue viruses produces a spectrum of illness ranging from vague sickness to fatal blood disease. No dengue vaccine is available.

Yellow Fever

Only occurring in South America and Africa, yellow fever is a viral disease transmitted between humans by a mosquito. Yellow fever is a very rare cause of illness in travelers, but most countries have regulations and requirements for yellow fever vaccination that must be met prior to entering the country. Travelers should also follow general precautions to avoid mosquito bites.

Sources: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Agriculture

 

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/index.htm

 


 

 

Level V – Multiple Human Cases, Epidemic Conditions

August 2, 2007

A response is initiated when County Public Health Laboratory or DHS officials notify the District that multiple mosquito-borne virus (i.e., WNV, WEE, or SLE) infections have occurred in humans within a specific area or there is evidence that epidemic conditions exist. The epidemic area is defined as the geographic region in which human cases are clustered (incorporated city, community, neighborhood or zip code). The District continues to assess the public health risk associated with the mosquito-borne virus (i.e., WNV, WEE, or SLE) by completing the Mosquito-borne Disease Report.

 

http://www.dhs.ca.gov/ps/dcdc/disb/disbindex.htm


 

 

 Monday, August 13, 2007

 

Science-Technology

Gene mutation led to virus that killed more birds and sped human infection.

The genetic change allowed West Nile to grow much more rapidly in crows, one of its chief targets, said researchers led by Aaron Brault, a microbiologist at the University of California, Davis, School of Veterinary Medicine. As a result, mosquitoes that fed on the birds picked up millions of viruses that could be spread to people.

Genetic changes in viruses can help them adapt to new environments, sometimes with disastrous consequences for humans.

 

 The mutation in West Nile virus

 made crows sick enough

 so that they could pass on

potentially killing doses of the germ

 to people.

 

West Nile virus can cause severe brain infections and nerve symptoms.

 

 

Today, crows infected by the North American strain of West Nile

harbor so much virus that a single mosquito

can take on a million copies in a single blood meal.

 

http://r.smartbrief.com/resp/hKnsohzZBnyaxTCibGwkPcXs?format=standard


Transfusion-transmitted viral infections

Over the two last decades, much attention has been given to the prevention of transfusion-transmitted viral infections such as HIV-1 and -2, human T cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV) I and II, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and West Nile Virus (WNV). Given the potential transmission of viruses during the 'immunological window period' [i.e. the period of early infectivity when an immunologic test is non-reactive], novel non-serology based approaches such as viral nucleic acid testing (NAT) have been established. Today NAT is performed on minipools of plasma from 16–24 donations and has significantly increased the sensitivity to detect infected blood components as it reveals viral agents earlier in the 'window period' than antibody or antigen assays[26]. However, it has some limitations in blood components with very low levels of viremia, which can even escape detection by NAT [27]. Despite this limitation, the combination of both serological testing and NAT has considerably reduced the risk of viral transmission by blood transfusion [28-30].

 

Full Report

Published online 2007 June 6

 


 Climate experts have long predicted a general warming trend over the 21st century spurred by the greenhouse effect, but this new study gets more specific about what is likely to happen in the decade that started in 2005.

 

 http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN0837368420070809

 

http://www.epa.gov/cgi-bin/epalink?target=http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/&logname=epahome&referrer=quickfinder


by the AMA and APHA

 

July 18, 2007


WASHINGTON — Today a coalition of 18 health organizations* led by the American Medical Association (AMA) and American Public Health Association (APHA) released a consensus report with 53 strategic recommendations for legislators, government officials and organizational leaders to more effectively prepare for and respond to catastrophic emergencies. The recommendations, especially nine identified as "critical," serve as a national call to action from medicine, dentistry, nursing, hospitals, emergency medical services (EMS), and public health. The recommendations seek to strengthen health system preparedness and response through increased funding, greater integration, continued education and training and ensured legal protections for responders.

"Most disasters are unplanned, but the response shouldn't be," said AMA President Ronald M. Davis, MD. "Whether disasters are natural or man-made, infectious disease pandemics or terrorist attacks, physicians, health care professionals and public health workers must be prepared to respond to emergencies and aid in the recovery efforts that follow. We can't predict when a disaster will strike, but as first responders, we can better prepare ourselves and others to protect the health and safety of our patients and citizens."

The AMA and APHA convened the AMA/APHA Linkages Leadership Summit, which met in 2005 in Chicago and 2006 in New Orleans to develop consensus recommendations that would be used to promote a coordinated national agenda for strengthening health system preparedness for terrorism and other disasters. Nine critical recommendations from the consensus report make up a call to action in four categories:

 Public health systems must be appropriately funded to adequately respond to day-to-day emergencies and catastrophic mass casualty events;

 Public health and disaster response systems must be fully integrated and interoperable at all government levels;

Health care and public health professionals should maintain an appropriate level of education and training;

*Health care and public health responders

must be

provided and assured

adequate legal protections in a disaster. *

"For too long public health and medicine have responded to emergencies in separate silos," said Georges Benjamin, MD, FACP, FACEP(E), Executive Director of the APHA. "Today's report represents our attempt to bridge the gap so that our health care and public health systems are fully integrated and interoperable in ways that allow for a rapid and efficient disaster response."

 

The AMA/APHA Linkages Leadership Summit project was funded under a cooperative agreement from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Terrorism Injuries: Information Dissemination and Exchange (TIIDE) program.

For more information or to obtain a copy of the full report, please visit:

 http://www.ama-assn.org/go/disasterpreparedness

The recommendations will be announced in conjunction with the

AMA/CDC 2nd National Congress for Health System Readiness

at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Washington, DC, a three-day summit convened to bring public health and healthcare delivery sectors together to improve preparedness at the community level for an influenza pandemic.

 

*The following organizations are members of the AMA/APHA Linkages Leadership Summit:

American Academy of Pediatrics; American College of Emergency Physicians; American College of Surgeons; American Dental Association; American Hospital Association; American Medical Association; American Nurses Association; American Osteopathic Association; American Public Health Association; American Trauma Society; Association of State and Territorial Health Officials; Emergency Nurses Association; National Association of County and City Health Officials; National Association of EMS Physicians; National Association of Emergency Medical Technicians; National Association of State EMS Officials; National Native American EMS Association; and State and Territorial Injury Prevention Directors Association.

 

http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/1616.html

 

AMA/CDC Second National Congress on Health System Readiness

The Second National Congress on Health System Readiness

was held July 18-20, 2007

 in Washington D.C. 

The purpose of the Congress was to bring public health and healthcare delivery sectors together to improve preparedness for an influenza pandemic at the community level. The Congress was a partnership between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the AMA.

Podcasts from the Congress are available on the

 University of Texas School of Public Health, Center for Biosecurity and Public Health Preparedness 

Website.

Conference agenda: http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/17464.html

Community planning:      http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/17464.html

 

These are the community pan flu preparedness plans submitted for the 2nd National Congress; use them as a reference to adapt and integrate relevant elements into your own local planning processes.

Last updated: Aug 06, 2007


 The following PDF files require Adobe® Reader®.

Arizona
Coyote Crisis Campaign (CCC): 2007 Community Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning (PDF, 62KB)
Scotsdale, AZ

Colorado
Health Emergency Line for the Public (HELP) for Community Pandemic Influenza Response (PDF, 41KB)
Denver, CO

Pandemic Influenza Planning Guidance for Medical Reserve Corps Units (PDF, 27KB)
Medical Reserve Corps - Pueblo County, CO

Connecticut
Alternative Care Sites (PDF, 36KB)
ACS Matrix (PDF, 21KB)
ACS Matrix Legends (PDF, 38KB)
Danbury Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Office of Emergency Management - Danbury, CT

Florida
Pasco County Health Department and Community Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning Experiences (PDF, 69KB)
New Port Richey, FL

Georgia
A Best Practice Collaboration Model between Georgia Power and State/District Public Health (PDF, 35KB)
Atlanta, GA

Where the Rubber Meets the Road: Enabling Non-Traditional Partners in Pandemic Influenza Planning (PDF, 47KB)
Georgia Division of Public Health

Idaho
The Self Imposed Reverse Quarantine Plan – A pandemic without morbidity? (PDF, 480KB)
Madison Memorial Hospital - Rexburg, ID

Illinois
A Community Vaccination and Mass Dispensing Model (CVMDM) for Public Health Officials (PDF, 101 KB)
Argonne National Laboratory - Argonne, IL

Kansas
Community Education and Communication – especially vulnerable populations (PDF, 18KB)
Attachment 1 - Planning Process (PDF, 16KB)
Attachment 2 - Narrative (PDF, 31KB)
Kansas Deparment of Health and Environment

Massachusetts
Emergency Dispensing Sites (EDS) Education Day for the Cape and Islands
 (PDF, 64KB)
EDS Education Day Schedule (PDF, 21KB)
EDS Education Day Flyer (PDF, 27KB)
Family Emergency Education Day Flyer (PDF, 89KB)
Barnstable County, MA

Michigan
Oakland County Health Division Community Integration and Collaboration (PDF, 27KB)
Pontiac, MI

Minnesota
Northeast Region Emergency Preparedness Coalition (PDF, 143KB)

Nebraska
Center for Biopreparedness Education (PDF, 23KB)
Omaha, NE

New England
The New England Center for Emergency Preparedness (NECEP) (PDF, 39KB)
Dartmouth Medical School 

New York
New York State Workgroup on Ventilator Allocation in an Influenza Pandemic (PDF, 36KB)
New York State Department of Health/New York State Task Force on Life and the Law

Ohio
Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning from a Health System Readiness Perspective (PDF, 94KB)
Akron Regional Hospital Association - Akron, OH

Local Health Department and Community Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning Experiences (PDF, 95KB)
Cuyahoga County Board of Health - Parma, OH

Oklahoma
Engaging Community Sectors in Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PDF, 17KB)
Abstract (PDF, 32KB)
Tulsa Health Department - Tulsa, OK

Oregon
Community mitigation strategies, community education and business community and private sector involvement (PDF, 51KB)
Multnomah County Health Department - Multonomah, OR

Tualatin Valley Fire and Rescue (PDF, 53KB)
Portland, OR

Pennsylvania
Pandemic Influenza Preparedness - Collaborative Healthcare Planning in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area (PDF, 78KB)
Philadelphia Department of Public Health - Philadelphia, PA

Rhode Island
State of Rhode Island Department of Health (PDF, 207KB)
Providence, RI

Tennessee
Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning Experience (PDF, 27KB)
Tennessee Department of Health, Southeast Regional Office - Chattanooga, TN

Utah
Community wide planning for pandemic influenza (PDF, 31KB)

Virginia
Medical Surge Capacity and Capability/ Emergency Healthcare Delivery (PDF, 139KB)

Development of Process to Address Ethical Issues and Altered Standards of Care in a Pandemic: Model for the Commonwealth of Virginia (PDF, 47KB)

Other
2006 Northern Region Mass Vaccination Exercise (PDF, 71KB)
Navajo Area Indian Health Service

Task Force on Mass Casualty Critical Care (PDF, 29KB)

 

Last updated: Aug 07, 2007


 

U.S. calls for co-op with China on climate change

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-08/14/content_6532883.htm

 

CLIMATE CHANGE IN GERMANY

http://www.dw-world.de/popups/popup_imagegalerie/0,,2452700_lang_2_page_1,00.html

 

DW travelled to an Arctic research station near the North Pole to learn more about climate change research. Click on the gallery below for a glimpse into the region and the lives of the scientists working there.

 

The International Polar Year (IPY) is a large scientific program focused on the Arctic and the Antarctic from March 2007 to March 2009.

 http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,2663624,00.html


 

World Environment Day 2007 Highlights Arctic Warming

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,2577340,00.html

 


 

Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems

 

 

http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=175644

 

Recent EPA Additions

 

http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=140917

 


 

E P A

Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects

 

Climate-Sensitive Diseases

 

Climate change may increase the risk of some infectious diseases, particularly those diseases that appear in warm areas

and are spread by mosquitoes and other insects. These "vector-borne" diseases include malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis.

 

 

Though average U.S. and global temperatures are expected to continue to rise, the potential for an increase in the spread of diseases  will depend not only on climatic but also on non-climatic factors, primarily the effectiveness of the public health system (WHO, 2003).

 

http://epa.gov/climatechange/effects/health.html

 


Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics

 

http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/infectdiseases/en/index.html


 

OLD NOAA REPORT

 

**** 1997-1998 ****

 

ENSO Experiment Background

 

 

What is the relationship between natural variability in the climate system, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and human health? How can we use climate forecast information to provide early warning of human health threats? How can climate information enhance public health policy and decision making?

These are but a few of the questions which prompted the ENSO Experiment, an interdisciplinary research effort to study the human health impacts of the current ENSO event, and explore the potential for applying forecast information in the public health arena.

 

Climate Variability and Human Health

 

That climate affects ecological systems is evident--witness changes in agricultural production during droughts and floods. It is also understood that ecological systems in turn influence the dynamics of disease transmission. For example, increases in diarrheal disease are often associated with extreme flooding events, recent research links cholera outbreaks with warmer sea surface temperatures, and climatic and weather variables affect vector-borne diseases. Throughout history societies have responded to recognized links between infectious disease and climate factors such as rainfall and temperature. That malaria comes with the rains, or that dengue is largely seasonal, is commonly known. Changes in precipitation and temperature, and extreme climate events, like droughts and floods, can directly affect human health, and can alter ecological and human systems creating conditions conducive to disease spread or outbreak.

 

Hypothesis

 

Driven by the opportunity presented by the current 1997-98 ENSO event, teams of scientists around the world are cooperating to examine the hypothesis that:

ENSO-related changes in precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables have both direct effects (through drought, flood and extreme weather events) and indirect effects (through changes in transmission and outbreaks of infectious diseases, particularly those borne by mosquitos, rodents, or water) on human health.

 

Objectives

 

The overarching objective of the ENSO Experiment is to examine the relationship between climate variability and human health, and to explore the potential for using climate forecast information to provide early warning of conditions posing a public health threat. In particular this experiment has four primary goals:

·       to assess the impact of the 1997-98 ENSO event on human health,

·       to enhance the dialogue among the climate, ecology and health research communities and end users of forecast information,

·       to document the use of forecast information in the health arena during this ENSO event, and

·       to identify additional research and monitoring needs and future research requirements.

 

 

Background

 

The El Niño refers to the movement, generally every three to seven years, of a warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Coupled with it's atmospheric counterpart, the Southern Oscillation, ENSO affects precipitation and temperature patterns around the world, particularly in the tropics. Next to the annual cycle, the ENSO phenomenon, one of several modes of natural climate variability, has the largest impact on global climate. Based on research achievements over the past fifteen years, scientists can now offer skilful experimental forecasts of ENSO in regions where its impact is strong. The development of climate forecasting tools offers exciting potential for using ENSO forecasts to provide early warning of conditions conducive to disease, thereby reducing both human and economic vulnerability to infectious diseases affecting humans, plants and animals. To achieve that potential requires a collective interdisciplinary research effort.

 

The impetus for the ENSO Experiment originated from participants at the American Academy of Microbiology sponsored colloquium entitled "Climate Variability and Human Health: An Interdisciplinary Perspective," held in Montego Bay, Jamaica, June 20-22, 1997. The colloquium's objective was to bring together scientists from various disciplines to examine the current state of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on human health and to develop a future plan of action. Toward that end, one primary meeting recommendation was that interested researchers take advantage of the ENSO in progress and assess the influence of ENSO-related changes in climate (primarily precipitation and temperature) on infectious disease threats to human health. This recommendation laid the foundation for the ENSO Experiment.

 

Participants stressed that since the ENSO was already underway, researchers should build on existing activities and resources. This was to be, of necessity, an "on the fly" kind of project in which researchers would receive climate forecasts, make projections of anticipated impacts, measure or monitor for those impacts, and analyze the relationships during the ENSO event , or at its end. Though clearly the success of this venture depends on the participation and support of many agencies and institutions, at the request of the Colloquium Chair, NOAA's Office of Global Programs (OGP) agreed that OGP and the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) would coordinate to facilitate this experiment.

 

For additional information please contact: Juli Trtanj, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs, 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225, Silver Spring, MD 20910. Tel: (301) 427 2089, ext. 134, Fax: (301) 427-2082, email: juli.trtanj@noaa.gov

 

Steering Committee

Since the ENSO event was already underway there would be no time for long term proposal development, experimental design and spin up activities. Drawing primarily from participants at the AAM's Montego Bay Colloquium, an interdisciplinary Steering Committee was therefore selected to help guide development and implementation of this ENSO experiment. Steering Committee membership includes:

Phil Arkin (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction)

Rita Colwell (University of Maryland/National Science Foundation)

Nick Graham (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction)

Duane Gubler (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

Juli Trtanj (NOAA Office of Global Programs)

 

Communcation and Community Building

One of the objectives of the ENSO Experiment is to faciliate communication across, and foster the fusion between, the disciplines that are becoming the climate variability and health community. Toward that end, NOAA OGP has sponsored, participated in and coordinated several activities. Following is a list of key meetings.

 

August 15, 1997

ENSO Experiment Initial Design Meeting

December 8-12, 1997

American Geophysical Union Special Session and Press Briefing

December 8-12, 1997

American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Special Session

December 15, 1997

ENSO Experiment Design and Development Meeting

March 8-12, 1998

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases

March 11-12, 1998

Environmental Protection Agency Conference on Emerging Public Health Threats and Climate Change

March 28-20, 1998

Third International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases in the Pacific Rim

May 13, 1998

Ecological Society of America Briefing and Federal Forum

May 18, 1998

American Society for Microbiology Special Session

July 27-28, 1998

ENSO Experiment Retreat

August 10-14, 1998

International Society of Microbial Ecology Session

at almost 10 yrs. later, I wonder how the research modules came out ???

under this "HYPOTHESIS" event

 

 

for complete lists and more information search NOAA, then archives.

 

also see OLD HISTORY page

what does aExperimental transmission mean ????

 

(both reports and experiments done 19??-1998)

 

 

******

 

 

* * *

REPORTS CONFIRMED

BY

BOTH GOVERNMENTAL AND PRIVATE

 

THE MAJORITY RULE

 

INFECTIOUS 

DISEASE 

 

IS

SPREAD

IN PART

BY

CLIMATE CHANGE

 

THIS IS NOT OPINION

 

IT IS DOCUMENTED FACT

 

 


 

Climate Change

 and Adaptation

Strategies for

Human Health

http://www.euro.who.int/

InformationSources/

Publications/Catalogue/

20051206_1


 

* * F Y I * *

DONATED

ORGANS/BLOOD

MUST BE SCREENED

FOR WNV

transmission also includes

breast milk

* * *


 

PROPER REPORTING IS THE BASIS OF ACTUAL COUNTS

*

Are you undiagnosed and/or misdiagnosed

*

Since analysis in 2002, it has been revealed 54% of patients with

West Nile Virus had symptoms that mimicked other

neurological diseases

Stroke

Parkinson's

Bells Palsey

Polio

Guillian-Barre

Syndrome


 

a

personal

opinion

I remember similar media rumbles about

WEST NILE VIRUS

causing FLU.

 Reaserch proves

it infects 1 of 150 people with WNND: encephalitis, meningitis,

ETC.

Now, like thousands, I live WNND on a daily basis.


 

"BIRD FLU"

 

HIGHLY

CONTAGIOUS

 

Contagious infectious

are usually distinguished in technical medical use. Contagious, literally “communicable by contact,” describes a very easily transmitted disease as influenza

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/